spring surprise: why the housing market is preparing to blossom. in today's cover story, how new equipment could help bridge the skills gap in the manufacturing industry. and, one person's treasure is another person's winning investment. the collectible items that are gaining value. plus, sci-fi fans: this box office is for you. why science fiction is big at the movies. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's thursday, march 14th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: another day, another record. the dow inched its way to yet another record close yesterday. the dow has rallied 9 days in a row, the most since 1996. the nasdaq and s&p also gained, while gold and oil drifted

lower. samsung is expected to call up its new galaxy 4 today in a big reveal at new york's radio city music hall. and amazon cuts the price of its largest kindle fire to $269. and 2:00 eastern is the new statement time for the rate announcement coming from the fed. it starts next week. there is the opening bell for our trader talk. todd horwitz of the adam mesh group joins us now. todd, i am wondering, how are we going to know the difference between a pause in the market and a really true pullback? > > first of all, good morning, thanks for having me on. what you are going to see is, right now the market has been limping higher every day. march came in like a bull and continues to go higher. but you have seen the last couple days, we have escaped with highs. what you are going to see is a change in news. when the bad news, which has been swept under the carpet here for six months, starts to take effect and give the market some reason to sell, that will

be when you will be able to tell that we are actually going to start to correct a little bit. but right now, there is still an underlying bid in the market, and right now bad news is still being ignored, and good news is being celebrated, so we are managing to push higher on a regular basis. > about that news, yesterday the retail news was better than expected. what is your reaction? > > i thought it was good, but you see, the market is now starting to price perfection in. if you go back a few days, we had a good unemployment number we had a good retail number, but the market has had more of a muted response - although it is higher, it is not excitingly higher, and i think the next real excitement will be when news misses and we actually pay attention to the bad news, and then we will start to get a little bit of a sell-off. > what is your trade on oil? all bets are on that we are going to see an increase in natural gas and oil production coming from the united states. > > first of all, since we are now a net exporter of oil and we have plenty of supply here i think oil is a sell. i think it is going to go lower. it doesn't mean that we won't have some periodic bounces here and

there but i think $93 is a good level you can focus on as a temporary top, which it hit yesterday. i think that we are probably going to go down into the mid-$80 level here sometime soon. > thank you. always a pleasure to have you on the show. > > thank you so much. with cyber attacks a top security concern president obama is warning corporate america of the threat. corporate leaders have met with the president to address cyber security. jp morgan ceo jamie dimon, along with ceos from at&t, honeywell and northrop grumman, met at the white house yesterday. on abc news, president obama assured, "there are ways that we can harden our critical infrastructure and financial sector." the great divide continues between republicans and democrats, although house speaker john boehner is calling president obama's visit to capitol hill a good start to solving the nation's financial troubles. congressman boehner called the discussions frank and productive, as the president met with gop lawmakers behind closed doors yesterday. white house officials say mr. obama

stressed the need to build trust between the two parties. the president also still believes there's an opportunity to reach a grand bargain on tax increases and spending cuts. meanwhile, europe is also facing budget friction. this week, members of the european parliament voted against a seven-year budget submitted last month by eu governments. the parliament is asking for more spending on economic growth and more flexibility to move money within the budget. now european government officials and parliament must head back to the drawing board. officials want to finalize the budget by summer. jp morgan chase ceo jamie dimon is not expected to testify on capitol hill this week about the so-called "london whale" trade. instead, the former chief investment officer, ina drew is scheduled to talk, along with other executives. drew was in charge of the uk-based trader known as the london whale for his massive trading positions. the trades caused the bank to lose at least $6 billion

last year. a senate subcommittee led by michigan democrat carl levin is investigating the bad trades. the founder of fisker automotive is speeding away from the company. henrik fisker plans to leave the auto-maker due to "major disagreements" with company management. fisker automotive issued a statement that the loss will not impact the company's plans for the road ahead. but at more than $100,000 each, the electric car maker has sold fewer than 2,000 cars since 2011. fisker automotive is reportedly seeking financing to build a new plug-in model. nissan is recalling some of its top selling cars because of faulty airbags. the altima, sentra, pathfinder, leaf and infiniti jx35 models are on the list. the cars may have sensors that are unable to detect if a passenger is in the car so the air bag may not delpoy. capital investment in the manufacturing sector continues to grow this year, boosted by brisk sales in the auto

industry. our cover story explores whether investment in equipment also means jobs. within the past year, national tool and manufacturing added six new machines to its metal fabricating business. demand is up for steel shaped into molds used to make auto parts, medical equipment and laptop computers. "some products have been brought back onshore. we just did a mold base for dell computer in austin. they bought from us last in 2001." this suburban chicago firm employs 48 people. "i started out when i was 19. my dad was an iron worker." but the new computer-controlled horizontal mill dewitt operates like the five other new machines here, is different and did not take long to figure out. "i could teach a guy in an hour on this machine. it's a good machine." it's three times faster and cleaner than the water- and stone-based grinder it replaces. it's also easier to

operate, and that is how some companies are dealing with the skills gap. "companies are buying machines that are easier to work with. in that sense, it's a jobless recovery." > > if you didn't have a skills gap here, would you have bought these machines? "no." in fact, two million dollars of capital investment now allows one worker at national tool to oversee three machines. in the last year, the company's hired three people and has openings for two more, and that's all because the more computized these machines are, the more similar they become. "this one, we had three days training on it because it's close to the other ones, similar." while automation has increased

production as much as 30% on some projects, the company is also cross-training its machinists to cover where floaters cannot fill in, and when all else fails, looks for aptitude and attitude - that combination of ability and willingness to wear many hats proficiently. the sun may be setting on the world's largest manufacturer of solar panels. suntech power reportedly is just about out of cash and on the verge of a takeover by the chinese government. the company is closing its only u.s. solar plant, located in good year, arizona, to cut costs. suntech is based in china and is weighed down by u.s. import tariffs, plus a global glut of panels. the stock trades under a dollar. some student loan rates could double. without action from congress, rates will increase to 6.8% from the current 3.4% starting july 1st. last year congress voted against an increase, but extended it for just one year. now lawmakers

must decide whether to extend rates again. the lower rates saved each student an estimated thousand dollars on borrowing costs last year. a bumper crop may be in store for farmers this summer. a slew of snowy winter storms along with improving spring weather patterns could deliver more moisture from the mississippi valley to the atlantic coastal plains. the u.s. ag department predicts a record crop in corn and soybeans. jack scoville of price futures group is watching the trading patterns from the grains pits of cme group. "overall, unless there's a sharp drop-off in demand especially on the soybean side on export or corn side for the domestic we should see the bull spreads pretty much work." meantime, indiana farmers have recieved a record $1 billion in crop insurance following last year's drought. collectors items are gaining value. according to a collector's index, all nine

categories of popular collector's items increased in value over the past decade. classic cars had the biggest gains, while, coins, stamps art, wine and jewlry also became more valuable. analysts note without expertise, investing in collectibles can be a challenge. still to come, a look at the films gearing up to compete with the great and powerful "oz." that's later on. but first, spring fling: why the housing market is ready to sprout in the months to come. that's next with bill moller.

home sales, home prices home construction - all three of these lagging indicators now are markedly improving, and that's a sure sign that the overall economy is doing the same, though it still has a long way to go. in fact, more homes could be sold this spring than in years. earl lee is president of prudential real estate affiliates. mr. lee, i know your company has done a little survey about all this. what did you find? > > one of the things we found was that home ownership is still a very important part of the american dream. in fact, 96% of our respondents replied it is a very essential part of what they are looking for in their lives. i think one of the reasons why that is really important is i think if we go back several years, there was a lot of information out there that we were going to become a nation of renters. and that obviously is not true based on our survey. > people certainly want to buy but economically, is buying a home still affordable? i know interest rates are down and so are home prices, but a lot of people aren't making as much money as they used to. > > that is true. i would say to you it depends on which sector. it also says that all

real estate is local. clearly in markets that have been severely depressed, like phoenix, las vegas, south florida, those markets are aggressively moving forward, and we're having a lot of people wanting to buy houses in those marketplaces. i live in southern california. that market has turned around very dramatically. in orange county, california, for instance the average months of remaining inventory are less than two, which says that all the houses that are on the market will be sold in less than two months. > and i see there are even bidding wars in some markets too. with winter's pent-up demand, is this likely to be a pretty strong spring? you certainly found that out. how big might this be? > > i think this is probably going to be a very strong spring compared to what we have had in recent years. one of the things that is driving this market, obviously, is the change in the economy. the economy is getting a lot better. but i think the demographics out there are things that are really driving this market. our country over the last 10 years has grown by 30 million people. yet because of some of the economic situations, a lot of people have been on the sidelines. i think people are now looking to see as the economy starts to stabilize for them, their own personal situation stabilizes, they are starting to look to see how they can get back into the homeowner market. > earl lee. thank you so much for talking with us. > > thank you very much.

thank you bill. in other news from the housing sector, the number of people applying for mortgages last week fell 4.3% as mortgage rates on the 30-year fixed bounced to 3.67% and the 15-year climbed to 3.01%. also, as house-hunting moves into the critical spring season lenders are said to be approving more low-down payments. fannie mae reportedly is buying loans with as little at 3% down payment. but those loans do require private mortgage insurance. coming up in movies and money a look at the post-"oz" box office win. plus, what film studios have in store to compete with the disney hit. that's next.

disney is already halfway to making up the $300 million spent on making and promoting "oz the great and powerful." the film took in $150 million worldwide over the weekend. in the u.s. alone, the film stormed the box office, with $80 million in ticket sales. "oz" was followed by "jack the giant slayer," "identity thief," "dead man down" and "snitch." bill moller is back with what's coming next to a theater near you: > all right, erik, let's start with the animated one: "the croods?" what does that mean?

> > "the croods," i'm sure it's sort of a take on the crudity of the family - it's a caveman family. it's opening in a couple weeks after "oz," so we are going to see if families are ready to take their kids back for an animated film rather than sort of the live-action thing that "oz" was. > now we have a lot of science fiction/horror coming up in the coming months. > > we have the "evil dead" remake, speaking of "oz." "the evil dead" was the film that put sam raimi on the map some years ago, and this is a re- imagining a remake, of his 1983 [198 horror classic that is getting a lot of buzz in the horror community. it was originally rated nc-17, so i don't know exactly the spill- over appeal that's going to get to people maybe like yourself bill, i am sure you are not going to go see "evil dead." but i think the fans are really going to show up for it. i think it has a chance to be a nice horror hit in april. > "the host." now, does this have some overtures from the "twilight" series? > > it was written by stephenie meyer, who wrote the "twilight"

books, so this is her latest opus. it is kind of an alien body snatchers-type movie. not hearing very good buzz about it but, maybe the "twilight" fans if they were on board for her books then, maybe they will be on board for this movie as well. > tom cruise still at work. > > yeah. "jack reacher" not a great hit for him this past december, but he's got a big science fiction movie coming out called "oblivion." it opens just a couple weeks before the summer season gets into gear with "iron man 3," so it doesn't have a whole lot of time to sort of make a bunch of money, but it has a chance to be sort of a decent april hit. i am not expecting huge dollars though. > paramount, their logo is the rock, the big mountain, and they are putting two movies around this one guy, the rock. > > dwayne johnson, yeah. first at the end of march you have "g.i. joe: retaliation," which is a film that was originally supposed to open last june and just a couple weeks beforehand it was pulled off the release schedule. there were some rumors that they wanted to add more channing tatum to the movie, some rumors saying that

the buzz was really bad so they pushed it off the schedule. now it is coming out in march. the first "g.i. joe" film, "the rise of cobra," did very well for paramount. now they have dwayne johnson in this one, who was dubbed "franchise viagra" by some people, because he has been put in a lot of sequels that have done very well. and also this movie "pain & gain" that michael bay directed comes out at the end of april, him pairing up with mark walberg in this true story of some muscle- bound guys who pull off a kidnapping. so that is a big action comedy sort of set-piece type movie, so... > i have found anything with michael bay i stay away from. these are ponderously long movies, whether it's the "transformers" flicks or "pearl harbor." i can't stomach it. > > this is a little different approach for him. i am sure it is going to be loud and noisy and it's going to have a lot of bang and whatnot. but mark walberg and the rock are two very charismatic performers, and i think the two of them together might sort of make this a little more tolerable for the people who are not onboard with michael bay stuff. > all right. erik childress thanks. > > thank you.

thanks guys. just ahead, a trade that hopefully won't leave you blushing. chart talk is next.

matt cavanaugh of cmz trading joins us now for a look at a cosmetics stock. and actually, you see a decent trade on this one. let's take a look at ulta. what do you see in the charts? let's start there. > > well, this is a stock that has had a lot of difficulty recently as the market has been rising. it's a stock we've talked about before, and it has really been kind of range- bound. so what i see in the charts here is i see support for ulta right around $84, $83, $85, somewhere in that range. the stock is roughly $87, $88 right now before earnings, so i think that just taking a brief look at it it looks like there is a good chance to maybe dip your toe into the long side here. > is this a quick trade? earnings are coming out tonight after the close.

> > you know, it would be one that i would make, but i would make sure to have defined risk/reward ratios on it. and what i mean by that is the stock looks like it is fairly expensive. it has been a growth story, but it has really had trouble the last few months. their cfo resigned, their ceo resigned, there were some downgrades. so what they did is they pre-released their earnings, and they actually look pretty good to me. so i think if the company can give any sort of clarity about what kind of leadership they have going forward and what their plans are, this stock could really pop here. > i notice there was some call buying, but anything is subject to happen here. thank you very much matt. have a good day. > > thank you. that does it for now. we hope you will join us tomorrow as our traders go unplugged to cover how to make money on commodites as that market calms down. from all of us at first business, have a great day.